What Really Happened in Kursk?
by Pepe Escobar
A serious debate is underway among selected circles of power/intelligence in Moscow – and the crux of the matter couldn’t be more incandescent.
To get straight to the point: what really happened in Kursk? Was the Russian Ministry of Defense caught napping? Or did they see it coming and set up a deadly trap for Kiev?
Informed insiders willing to share some tidbits on condition of anonymity emphasize the extreme sensitivity of all this. A professional intelligence officer, however, offered what could be interpreted as a precious clue: “It’s quite surprising to see that such a concentration of force wasn’t noticed by satellite and drone surveillance in Kursk, but I wouldn’t exaggerate its importance.”
Another intelligence professional prefers to stress that “the foreign intelligence section is weak, as it was very poorly managed.” This is a direct reference to the state of affairs after the post-inauguration reshuffle, when former security chief Nikolai “Yoda” Patrushev was transferred from his post as Secretary of the Security Council to serve as Putin’s special presidential advisor.
Sources, cautiously, seem to converge on a very serious possibility: “It appears there was a collapse in intelligence; they didn’t seem to notice the buildup of troops on the Kursk border.”
Another analyst, however, offered a much more specific scenario, according to which a bellicose faction within the Ministry of Defense and the intelligence apparatus – and antithetical to new Defense Minister Belousov, an economist – allowed the Ukrainian invasion to proceed with two objectives in mind: to set up a trap for Kiev’s main commanders and troops, which were diverted from the Donbass front – in collapse; and to put extra pressure on Putin to finally take the bull by the horns and end the war.
This bellicose faction, incidentally, considers Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov to be “totally incompetent,” in the words of an intelligence professional. There is no concrete evidence, but Gerasimov allegedly ignored several warnings about a Ukrainian buildup near the Kursk border.
A retired intelligence officer is even more controversial. He claims that “traitors of Russia” actually “stripped three regions of troops to hand them over to the Ukrainians.” Now, these “traitors of Russia” can “exchange” the city of Suzha for leaving the false country of Ukraine and promoting it as an inevitable solution.”
Incidentally, only this Thursday Belousov began presiding over a series of meetings to improve security in the “three regions” – Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk.
Falcons within the siloviki apparatus make no secret of the fact that Gerasimov should be fired – and replaced by the legendary General Sergey “Armageddon” Surovikin. They also enthusiastically support Alexander Bortnikov of the FSB – who actually solved the extremely obscure Prigozhin case – as the man who now really oversees the Big Picture in Kursk.
And next is Belgorod
Well, it’s complicated.
The president’s reaction to the Kursk invasion was visible in his body language. He was furious: at the blatant military/intelligence failure; at the obvious loss of prestige; and at the fact that this would bury any possibility of rational dialogue about ending the war.
However, he managed to turn the tide in no time, by designating Kursk as an antiterrorist operation (CTO); supervised by Bortnikov of the FSB; and with a built-in logic of “no prisoners taken.” Any Ukrainian in Kursk who is not willing to surrender is a potential target – defined for elimination. Now or later, it doesn’t matter how long it takes.
Bortnikov is the practical expert. Then there’s the Supervisor of the entire military/civil response: Alexey Dyumin, the new Secretary of the State Council, who among other previous positions was the vice-chief of the GRU’s (military intelligence) special operations division. Dyumin does not report directly to the Ministry of Defense or the FSB: he reports directly to the President.
Translation: Gerasimov now seems to be, at best, a figurehead in the Kursk drama. The men in charge are Bortnikov and Dyumin.
The Kursk PR stunt is about to fail miserably. Essentially, Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from their lines of communication and supply to Russian territory. A parallel can be drawn with what happened to Field Marshal von Paulus in Stalingrad when the German Army became overstretched.
Russians are already cutting off Ukrainian forces in Kursk – breaking their supply lines. What’s left of the elite troops launched in Kursk will have to retreat, facing Russians both in front and behind. Disaster is approaching.
The commander of the Akhmat special forces, Major General Apti Alaudinov, confirmed on TV Rossiya-1 that at least 12,000 Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) entered Kursk, including many foreigners (Britons, Frenchmen, Poles). This will end up being a “no prisoners taken” operation on a large scale.
Anyone with an IQ above room temperature knows that Kursk is a NATO operation – conceived with high probability by a combination of Anglo-American supervision and the Ukronazi cannon fodder.
Anything Kiev does depends on American ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) and NATO systems, operated by NATO personnel.
Mikhail Podolyak, Kiev’s green-suited advisor, admitted that Kiev “discussed” the attack “with Western partners.” The “Western partners” – Washington, London, Berlin – in full cowardly attire, deny it.
Bortnikov won’t be fooled. He officially declared that this was a terrorist attack supported by the West.
We are now entering the hardcore combat positioning stage destined to destroy villages and cities. It will be ugly. Russian military analysts observe that if a buffer zone had been preserved in March 2022, medium-range artillery fire would have been restricted to Ukrainian territory. Another controversial decision by the Russian General Staff.
Russia will resolve the Kursk drama – eliminating small Ukrainian groups in a methodically lethal manner. However, very sensitive questions about how this happened – and who let it happen – simply won’t disappear. Heads will have to – figuratively – roll. Because this is just the beginning. The next incursion will be in Belgorod. Prepare for more blood on the tracks.
Pepe Escobar – Independent geopolitical analyst, writer, and journalist
This text does not necessarily represent the opinion of the Jornal GGN. Agree or have a different point of view? Send your article to [email protected]. The article will be published if it meets the Jornal GGN’s criteria.
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